Panel A: Predictability results
	Full Sample			COVID-19 Sample
UPE	0.037485***			0.03590***
	(0.00012)			(0.0004)
	[306.6762]			[91.6324]
Nobs	2350			85
Panel B: In-Sample forecast evaluation
	Full Sample			COVID-19 Sample
	Model 1		Model 2	Model 1		Model 2
RMSE	0.0820		0.2933	0.2223		0.5476
Clark & West	-		0.0043***	-		0.4997***
			(0.0015)			(0.0817)
			[2.8430]			[6.1138]
Nobs	1205		1205	65		65
Panel C: Out-of-Sample forecast evaluation [Full-Sample]
	Model 1			Model 2
	h=10	h=20	h=30	h=10	h=20	h=30
RMSE	0.0820	0.0824	0.0837	0.2928	0.2928	0.2939
Clark & West				0.0040***	0.0037***	0.0030***
				(0.0015)	(0.0015)	(0.0015)
				[2.6556]	[2.4267]	[1.9758]
Nobs	1215	1225	1235	1215	1225	1235
Panel D: Out-of-Sample forecast evaluation [COVID-Sample]
	Model 1			Model 2
	h=5	h=10	h=20	h=5	h=10	h=20
RMSE	0.21615	0.2163	0.2034	0.5285	0.5123	0.4918
Clark & West				0.4617***	0.4324***	0.4001***
				(0.076984)	(0.072418)	(0.063894)
				[5.997383]	[5.970464]	[6.262076]
Nobs	70	75	85	70	75	85